Intellipharmaceutics (IPCI) Forum
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #1 
What does everyone think a realistic price target for IPCI is with good news? Here is what I think:

1. Just on a pop, it can only go to $0.75-1. As the warrants limit target price.
2. With extremely good news or pipeline advancement over time, I think a market cap of $100M is doable. Why? Simply because that is about as high of a market cap this company has had before. So with all warrants exercised, that would correspond to a PPS of about $2.
3. On major news like a huge partnership, Rexista approval or cash flow positive status, I could potentially see a maximum market cap of $200M. However, I think it is highly unlikely they ever get near this value of market cap UNLESS they can start generating revenue in excess of $14M per year. This would cover burn rate.

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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #2 
Wimusky,

There are a couple of unusual factors here that make it very hard to make predictions like this.

This biggest factor is the prefunded warrants situation.  Technically they are not exercised and thus aren't shares available for trading.  So IPCI "should" trade like a company with 8+ million shares out rather than 24+ million shares.  There simply aren't that many shares out there.

An avalanche of buying on positive news could easily cause a spike much higher than might be expected ..... that is likely to be fairly short lived ..... simply the result of not that many shares available out there.  But guessing how high and for how long .... like I said is a fools game.  There is no way to tell.

This kinda fits with what I've been telling Samsa ...... the folks that have held this stock through all the BS with high average cost need to consider what and when they might pull the trigger on selling ..... or at least have a strategy to take advantage of any movement when possible.

Amigo Mike
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #3 
Amigo- Yes that spike will be short lived. I expect the guys with the prefunded warrants to walk this up a bit and sell them before they exercise them. Then they will cover that short. So those shares are coming at some point. I just expect them to sell them before they even own them. If the owners of the prefunded warrants are who I suspect... We will never hear who bought them as they will be used instantly to cover a short when they are exercised.

And yes I agree there is risky trade opportunity. But certainly not for investment as we all know IPCI pipeline is stale and Odidi frickin is sitting on his hands most of the time.
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #4 
Amigo - what are your thoughts on acrx. Their drug dsuvia got fda approved yesterday. I have a small position in them.
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #5 
wim, I guess that is what I was hoping for.  the stock to trade like it has the 8 million shares in the float.  If so, seeing $2 to $3 should be doable as that would be a 16 to 24 million market cap.   However, As Amigo pointed out, we are being traded as if the pre-funded warrants are already issued.  I do not think the manipulators will allow it to go that high.  They already ran us down to 46 cent cent.   While the 75 cent offering didn't create a floor I bet they use it to keep us from going much higher.   I am still waiting to hear what Pharmer thinks and his seeing us still being able to break even.  I would love to know how. 
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #6 
Quote:
Originally Posted by wimuskyfisherman
Amigo - what are your thoughts on acrx. Their drug dsuvia got fda approved yesterday. I have a small position in them.
  Wimusky,  honestly I have never looked at ACRX so I cannot really give an opinion without quite a bit of additional research.  I'll see if I have some time over the next week or so.

Amigo Mike
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Samsa1
wim, I guess that is what I was hoping for.  the stock to trade like it has the 8 million shares in the float.  If so, seeing $2 to $3 should be doable as that would be a 16 to 24 million market cap.   However, As Amigo pointed out, we are being traded as if the pre-funded warrants are already issued.  I do not think the manipulators will allow it to go that high.  They already ran us down to 46 cent cent.   While the 75 cent offering didn't create a floor I bet they use it to keep us from going much higher.   I am still waiting to hear what Pharmer thinks and his seeing us still being able to break even.  I would love to know how. 
Samsa, 
if there is positive news, the traders will bid it up as they don't care to look at the number of shares and capital structure of the company.  They are interested in movement and flip trades.  You can take the posts of Bernstein as somewhat of an example of leaving out all the facts and simply talking about what makes IPCI a great buy here vs reality.  Traders will bid it up with the right news quickly.  Then it will fall back as everyone exits .... including those that know enough to know the news might not be as positive as what face value would have you believe.  Take an FDA approval of any of IPCI's outstanding ANDAs.  The traders will jump on the news of an FDA approval, but anyone on the name already knows they are virtually worthless so ...... it'll be immediately sold off.  But with only 8 million shares, the spike might be higher than thought, but also could happen and then disappear just as fast.  All depends on the traders jumping in.  The longer term will always be down for this stock unless or until they start generating real business and stop the endless dilution.

Amigo Mike
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #8 
Amigo, well lets hope you are right because the company sure does put out bad news.  case in point, they put announced Andrew just resigned.    Now, technically people come and go all the time and we all know Odidi runs things with an iron fist and takes no advice from anyone.  So technically we should not see that much of a drop especially since he was only here for a little over a year.   so In the scheme of things does it really effect anything?   but I sure bet we see a drop tomorrow just like we did when Penna left.  Yet, the stock never went up when they hired Andrew!  And you wonder why I get upset at what I perceive as manipulation.   we dropped on Penna leaving but we didn't see a pop on news of hiring someone?   it gets old.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #9 
Samsa,
Samsa,
Samsa,

When it rains it pours. Patient out the door now. So much for being the saviour. All it sez to me is there is nothing to save. If there were, this would be "the" turnaround opportunity of the century.

Thought you had gotten over the manipulation complaints but I guess not. As I explained, the "manipulation" as you call it is nothing more than simple math. Why should there be a pop on the hiring of a CFO? Only happens if the is a big name attached.

Wonder what he walks away with eh ?

Amigo Mike
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #10 
Well my opinion just changed on patient. Maybe he was OK after all. Nobody that has other options would continue to enable odidi and his destruction of this company.
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #11 
Amigo,  You missed my point.   we saw the price decline from around $1.20 to $0.95 when Penna left.  Why?   Was he that good?   However, when the company hired Patient the stock price never recovered back up the $1.20 as a matter of fact the price did not pop at all.   Why?  Because the street felt Patient was not that good?   Yet, after only a year and he now departs, watch and see what the price does.   My guess, they use it as an excuse to drive the price down today.   Just making an observation.   No, I Haven't got over the Manipulation comments yet. 

What has Patient actually been able to get done in the year he was here?  If memory serves me I think 4 dilutive offers since October of 2017.  Yet, he was known for turning small companies around.    So, In all honesty him leaving should be a non-event.   But I bet we see it looked at differently in the share price today.  Do not get me wrong, we all know he had o chance of implementing any changes as he was a lap dog for Odidi.  That is probably why he left.  But that is my point as to how we constantly see the price being drug down on news events that should really have no effect.   Yet, on news events that should have at least popped the price, we see none.  

The fact that Boyd has not fled even filed a 13D yet, instead of his 13G after gettiing in at $11.00, indicates that manipulation is as much to blame as Odidi because these so called people behind the "market" do not seem to be concerned at all about making changes and getting Odidi out or at least under control.

we shall see.   Maybe I will be proven wrong, but my guess is we are back below 50 cents today. 
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #12 
Samsa- I like the lapdog for Odidi comment... You really got to wonder why all these CFOs keep leaving... For once I would like to see the CFO stay and the CEO leave... LOL
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #13 
Pharmer, I tried sending you my email as you suggested but it shows your account is blocked from receiving messages.  so let me know.  I dont have a problem posting in here if that is what you want.  People having my email doesn't bother me.  If I get junk mail I just send it to spam folder LOL

what I will say, is Odidi has not partnered Regabatin and that has needed one since 2015.   He has stated he was looking for a Rexista partner since 2013 and even tried to go it alone with the FDA to get approval.    Had he had a partner lined up, I would expected he would have inked a deal before doing such a toxic dilution right after a RS.  

If Boyd is waiting for some partnership to happen, , well lets say my health won't keep me alive that long.   So, what good news if any is going to be within our life times? 
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nathaly4me

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Reply with quote  #14 
"...all I can say is hang in there buddy also if you can send me on messenger your e-mail will try to send you some pictures that I was told NOT TO MAKE PUBLIC..."

Photographer nathaly4me@gmail.com
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