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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #1 
Amigo,  I got another question for you.  based on what you say is the market and fair valuation, compared to what I refer to as manipulation. 
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As to your question on valuation .....
Ok .... say there is $11 million in the bank .... 8 million shares .... $1.375 per share cash.  Well the pre-funded warrants invalidate the 8 million outstanding because the buyers of the pre-funded warrants have basically already paid for new shares (it is MOST of the $11 million already in the bank) ...... that is where the 24 million share number comes in at .46.  This is the most accurate at this moment in time ..... so the stock is trading at roughly a nickel above cash.


Here is my question.  Based on your example above, you are saying that because the warrants are "pre-funded" the market is calculating those shares in as already part of the float even though they actually are not.   So, you and I have had this discussion before about how this stock does not act like a normal stock as no speculative value is ever built in which is why I called it manipulation.   Your argument is the company is only being valued on worth and they are in the "show me" status that no value is going to be built in until they actually produce.

So assuming you are correct, then what do you see are any catalyst here?   At this point would you expect to even see any uptick in price based on HAP study results (assuming they are spectacular) any uptick on refiling the application.   OR, if you are strictly a numbers man, we will not see any uptick unless he actually partners a drug?  

If this stock is not traded on any positive news, then the only thing we will see is continual downward pressure each and every quarter as they spend down the money the just got and that will get divided up as you laid out based not on the float but on the 23 million shares because they were pre-funded. 

we already know they do not expect any improvement in revenue.  They put out the foreign market 12 to 24 months.   so nothing there.   He has not partnered a drug this year as they indicated they would.   Even a new drug approval wont bring in additional revenue as long as its with MNK and they are not actually trying to sell anything.  And not to mention, any new approval just costs the company another million in bonuses for Odidi.

So, someone in my position, who now is totally ruined, selling at 50 cents verses selling at $1 makes a huge difference of $100 a month for retirement.  What if any catalyst do you see the "market" even remotely moving the price up?
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #2 
Samsa,

You know as well as I what the catalysts are for this stock.

Any FDA approval of an ANDA (short lived)

Very good HAP studies

Resubmission of Oxy NDA

Removal of Odidi from MGMT

A partnership for Regabatin

A partnership for Oxy which presumably doesn't happen until a resubmission occurs.

However, none of these items are guaranteed to occur.

Bernstein on Ihub is right that dropping 50 cents for a few IPCI is likely to yield and nice gain with the right news. But he's new to the party and doesn't have to recover the money that you do.

Amigo Mike
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #3 
Oh and they sold 16.3 million prefunded warrants was it ? At .74?? Well isn't that $12 million of the money in the bank ?? They arent "issued" shares and not part of the float but valuing the company should be based on the 24-25 million shares rather than the 8.1 million.

It was nice to see the first green day in a long time. It's likely the selling has finally slowed.

Hell I might throw a few bucks in the pot now. But the volume to the upside wasn't comparable to the sell side of the last several weeks

Amigo Mike
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #4 
Amigo, and those catalysts are what has got me into this mess.   I already took the loss after adcomm. losing around 100k.   I bought back in,using my profits from other stocks,  at around 95 cents thinking the same thing.  That they had all these catalyst,  instead of the stock trading sideways as I expected, it continued to go down!   My only option as everything was in IRA's, was to try and cost avg down.   I don't know anything regarding short selling but couldn't if I wanted too.   I couldn't buy the offerings that subsequently were offered. so each offering I used it as a chance to cost avg down putting a little more into it.   Thinking that each offering would create a floor, which it did not!  Trust me, Its not just the manipulation which has screwed us over, because that I do not understand it all.  I could never figure it out.  But Odidi's lies continued.  

He puts out the Operational update in January when we were still trading at around 75 cents or $7.50.  Saying that they had these exact same catalyst! Even saying they were evaluating partners (plural) for Regabatin and had hoped to be starting trials for that by years end.    All I ever wanted was to try and get back to being close to even.  My goal wasn't even to make a profit at that point.   I would have and did bet my life on the fact that he would not dilute before taking an offer, any offer. which had he we would have been back to $1 and I could hopefully made back a little by selling at around $1.10  at the area Boyd got in.   And well the rest is history.

To the point,what Pharmer wrote about a month ago made sense and sounded logical which again is why I stayed in.   That Odidi wanted to try and meet market cap which would mean we would trade around $8 a share or 80 cent pre-split and I could at least get out with only taking a little more of a loss.   I do not fault Pharmer for Odidi then deciding to just dilute instead, because again, that's ones opinion as to what would happen, The lies, if any came in afterwards, when the he said he was telling his people to cover and what the effect would be.   I kept asking for help in trying to figure this out.   I would have been happier to sell at $2.50 and safe guard what was left than to see it run down to 50 cents.  As right now, each 50 cent equates to around $100 in dividends that I need for when my wife retires.  which now the way it looks she won't be able too retire at all.    As of now, I do not think we could afford my medication if she quits and we loose her insurance.

So, you see I am totally screwed here.  So I do appreciate any help and guidance.   I have never wanted to stay in this any longer than needed and certaintly wasn't expecting to be in this long.   I was just trying to get as close to break even as possible and that has made things more catastrophic.  At this point selling at $1 is better than 50 cents as it means an extra $100 a month.    But it is not good if it means losing the $100 I have now.  This is why I will be extremely upset if, I find out Pharmer mislead me ,as I could have sold out at $2 to $2.50 when I was questioning what was going on.  I still can not believe why someone would purposefully mislead someone asking for help.  So, I am hoping he can clear things up soon.   But just hearing you say that for valuation purposes we need to be looking at using 23 million shares rather than the float means a lot.   As it allows one to at least place a market cap range on it.    23 million shares At $1 would be a 23 million market cap, which I think will be difficult to obtain.  so any pop will likely be less than $1.     I just need to get out at the earliest opportunity. 

Oh and your comments about others like Bernstein getting in now, trust me, I will be warning them about this scam artist.  I recall a guy named Gregory who once posted on the old Yahoo board.  He called Odidi a Nigerian scam artist and everything under the book.  I know why now.   while you point the possible catalyst, then we have the negatives which will occur.   such as the 4QE which will show the money dwindle.  The next NASDAQ compliance notice which will come next month because we wont be trading above $1, which is why I just need to get out at the earliest possible chance.  I know $200 a month for income may not sound like a lot to you, but it means a lot to me.  I never made a lot of money working in this area.  Hell, Public Defenders and Prosecutors make about 50k a year.  The county DA makes 75k a year, a corp. attorney doesn't make much more.  Then I have been off not working and on disability since 2010.    So our savings were dwindled to begin with.   I know what you are going to say, I should have never been invested in this in the first place.   My problem was I was trying to get my wife retired early, so we would have some time together.  so I drank the cool aid that Odidi put out there thinking he was going to do something quick.   The rest of the time has been trying to recapture my profits after I re-bought in after Folcalin at what would now be $40 a share.    I kept believing that with all the potential I should at least be able to break even. 

So, that's my tail.  I never wanted or expected riches.  I just wanted to break even and my only option was to continue to cost avg down.  so here I sit as we went from $40 to 50 cent and literally lost all our savings except for 15k.    And all I ever asked for was some honest help and guidance.  So Thank you Amigo for at least providing what you have.  I finally understand the full impact of these pre-funded warrants.   
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fabioulous

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Reply with quote  #5 
And where is Pharmer? He has been throwing misleading infos and building up illusions.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #6 
Samsa,

All I'm saying is you need to start looking at your strategy for an exit if that is what you want to do.  For example you said you just want out at the earliest opportunity.  Well looking forward ..... what defines that "opportunity" and when ?  Gotta have a plan.  Is it a hard stock price number ?  Is it trying to trade the stock a little bit on movement ..... or is it a gradual move out ???  These types of things are difficult to determine and stick too ..... but even more so when you've experienced what you have with this stock.

What if the stock spiked to $1 tomorrow because an ANDA is approved and traders have rushed into the stock and created a push ?  Are you in, out, or waiting to see what happens ?  You've kinda insinuated that you might sell at $1.  

I will be honest.  I have purchased the stock here.  However I am not in the position you are in as like Bernstein, I can say that tossing a few bucks at this stock should get me at least a 50% gain if some positive news hits ..... and if I lose it .... well ..... I was making a bet ..... and I lost with money I was willing to take a chance with losing.

You asked me to point out what positives may happen in the stock so I gave the list which you already knew.  The question is whether they will actually happen or not.  So far .... NOT.  Will the rabbit jump out of the hat ?  I don't know.  But you should think long and hard about what you want to do here and decide what and when based on the information you have.

Amigo Mike
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #7 
Amigo, First, Thank you for the help and at least trying to focus my attention!    I will say that is exactly what got me into this trap.   I originally had a plan.  I sold out at pre-split $1.10 when Boyd bought in last Oct. and took a large hit.  I re-bought  at 90 cents hoping to get out if the price went back up to $1.15 range thinking I could at least recover a little of what I lost.  Instead of going back up it continued to trade down!  which is when I tried to cost avg down and had every intention of just getting out as long as it went back to then 95 cents or $9.50 now.  As we know how that worked out.     I even was thinking about getting out and just securing what I had when it popped up to $3.50 but then Pharmer was saying to just sit back and relax as we were headed higher and honestly, the plan he laid out did seem feasible.   So, my goal was to get out as soon as we hit even just $8 or $9.  Then the stock was being traded down as he was saying to his friends to cover and I was lost as to explain what was going on with the price.   And I really did not understand what or how pre-funded warrants were going to effect the price.   Had I known what you recently posted, that this means we need to look at them as being issued even when they are not, I would have sold out back then.   So as you see, my exit strategy has never worked out with this damn thing.

So, honestly, the way I see it is like this.  I do not see any ANDA getting approved.   They have been saying that for 2 years now.  The only thing I see happening is HAP study results which they mentioned in one of the 9 prospectuses that they intend to announce when they refile.  I do not see them refiling until sometime in November.   By this time they will get another delisting notice because of the stock price!  so unless they refile before the delisting notice and the price goes to $1 that is going to take us back down. OR worse yet we go down to say 35 cents and then only get a jump up to 75 cents on refiling!  Thats my biggest fear and has always been downfall in my plans.  this stock goes way down on bad news and then any good news we are lucky to see a pop.

While I see it appears they are trying to settle the Purdue case, more than likely at the request of any potential partner, That infers they will not partner this until after any settlement and that wont be until Mid December so I do not see any partnership coming until January at earliest.    So yes, seeing how this trades I do not see how I ever can obtain getting even as Pharmer was suggesting, which is why I feel any pop to around the $1 I will have to get out.  

This is what I was saying was so frustrating a year or so back, the stock never allows any value to get built in.  It appears not to go up on any good news but let them announce that they get another delisting notice and I bet we get drive down further than the recent bottom.   So, Yes, I would probably jump out now if the price hit a $1 or more, but I doubt we even get there.   Knowing that we have to calculate on 23 million shares instead of the 8 million. 

So, that is what is causing my sleepless nights.  I try to have a plan to get out and it never happens and look at where I am.  It makes is so difficult when I know that I will need as much as possible for my wife's retirement.  I then put these goals in place and they never seem to happen.  Then it was compounded by not understanding what exactly was going on when it was going on.   I asked Pharmer how is him telling hos group to cover and the price goes down?  I assumed if people were covering the price would go up?  This is where I said, I can not believe Pharmer would outright lie as I see no personal advantage to tell people wrong information.  

So, I am not sure it is a plan as much as a hope that we at least hit $1.  while That gets me no where near what I lost, at this point it makes a huge difference to have 30k invested in a dividend producer at say 9% then the 15K I have left.   every dollar counts especially when you are looking at 10k a year in prescriptions that insurance wont cover and living on a fixed income.   I never wanted to be invested in this, this close to retirement.  but my problem was has always been just trying to recover my losses only to have them compounded.

The other thing that doesn't help is the price drops quicker than it goes up and which is why I try and keep an eye on it, but you know how that goes.  It will spike 50 cents  and a minute later its already back down.   I have tried to put in open market orders and that hasn't worked out much either.   So, all I can say is I hope we at least hit $1 at this point. 
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