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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #1 
The title asks it all.  so, according to the filing. Odidi holdings owns 578,131 or6.72%

Then they report Isa Odidi with shared votes of 1,164,885 (includes 375,088 shares issuable upon exercise of options and 211,666 shares issuable on conversion of debt)* and Amina Odidi with the same shared amount,   representing 12.7%.

so are the two exclusive of each other or combined?  in other words does the Odidi's together own 12 % and their holding company own an additional 6.72% ?

plus, since when are options and shares issuable upon conversion been counted?  I thought you had to wait until you actually got the shares?

if so, we can not expect to see much change anytime soon.  as that represents roughly 19% of the company.  and Boyd clearly has no interest in making changes.
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #2 
Sam- The way I read it, they own 578K shares. But then they go on to say they have all these options to get more shares... Those shares are at ridiculously high prices so they will never be exercised... It appears they did not buy any shares at this bargain basement low level of the offering. So it shows how much confidence they have in their work and management! It appears to be more of a con every day...
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #3 
wim, thanks for confirming what I was thinking myself.   the only good thing with the recent PR's we now know what the company comes up as the current float.   8.1 million shares.

I am still waiting to see this squeeze that Pharmer kept talking about.  I sure hope it comes.  The manipulation has been relentless.  we are down another 25% from the recent offering!   This is just crazy.   Do you realize we are down from $10 to 0.055 cents since adcomm on basically no bad news?    we already dropped from $25 to $10 on the news of adcom.  but now we dropped from $10 range to 0.055 cents and the only real bad news was the drop in revenue from Focalin.     we have dropped 25% since the last offering and there hasn't been any bad news to the contrary we only got good news that we are back in compliance.

while Odidi, has not helped by his lack of management we are getting double hit.   The dilution would not have been near as bad if not for the manipulation.  The real question is will they allow the price to pop on any good news?    Will we get this short squeeze on news of great HAP results?    Numerous other companies have seen flat share prices. when they are in periods of no progression.   Not IPCI.  the greed of the manipulators is ruining us all.    Well I should not say ruining us.  I for one am already ruined. It has devastated me as I have lost everything.   The sad part is unlike most who will just keep holding hoping the shares one day turn around, I will not be able to do.    The $15,000 that my shares are still worth now means a lot to me.   I will have to soon sell just to preserve that because that $15,000 means an extra $100 a month for retirement. 

There is no reason the shares should be going down at this point after the recent offering.  that should have created a floor but here we are.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #4 
Samsa,
It's 578k shares. Period.

Second, I'd advise you to stay away from stocks like IPCI in the future because clearly you do not understand the basics of company valuation and pricing. You continue to talk about huge drops in pricing and valuation on no bad news. 100% wrong.

For what IPCI is SUPPOSED TO BE WORKING ON, no news IS BAD NEWS. Second, how many financing is it this past year ??? EACH ONE IS BAD NEWS as it underscores the repeated failure of MGMT to monetize the pipeline. Silence .... Is BAD NEWS. Name one thing this company has accomplished since Adcom ?

Let's talk presplit numbers. There is no end in sight for losses. No view into any increase in revenues. Blowing roughly $12-14 million a year with no signs of ROI anytime soon. The fully diluted numbers of shares went from roughly 42 million shares to roughly 450 million shares in a blink of an eye. BY DEFAULT, PER SHARE VALUE TODAY IS ONE TENTH (1/10TH) OF WHAT IT WOULD BE JUST 2 months ago. It is not manipulation. It is pure numbers and the fact that MGMT is completely inept.

That all said, with todays 8 million shares out, itcertainly is possible that mgmtcould pull a rabbit outta the hat and spring some good news. My guess though is the market already knows the news. And you see the results daily with the continued decay in the price. Honestly wouldn't shock me to see MGMT awarded options soon at rock bottom prices.

Amigo Mike
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fabioulous

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Reply with quote  #5 
Only possibility I see for a real squeeze is if hal studies come out better than COLL ones in all the 3 routes of abuse. At that point you have a best in class product.

Impossible? Impossible is nothing.LoL

Likely? I doubt
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #6 
Amigo- I wish I could still see the possibility of management pulling a rabbit out its hat... I don't... The prefunded warrants are as good as shares. Just not on the books yet as whoever owns them does not want to show their hand yet. The millions of "firm" warrants will limit any price rise as IF and that is a big IF... It ever goes above $0.75 they will exercise those and dump them on the idiots who feel their is hope with this pathetic company.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #7 
Wimusky,

Yes the prefunded warrants are as good as being shares ..... but they aren't tradable or part of the float.  So the 8 million shares presently outstanding is a very small number by today's standards for corporate capital structure.

That said the valuation is getting pretty low.  You can play with numbers all you want.  I don't think IPCI has the $13 million in the bank any longer.  Probably $10-11 million.

Assuming $11 million
8 million share out .... $1.375 per share
24 million ..... $0.46 per share (nearing this number currently)
44 million ..... $0.25 per share

Mr Market is saying there is no real value outside of cash for this company.  And based on the last 2 years, Mr Market is correct and has been.  This decline didn't start in the last 2 months, its been happening for YEARS.  This is a 5 year chart
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=ipci&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=10%2F29%2F2018&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8&x=43&y=13

That's all manipulation ?  NOT.  There is a VERY CLEAR long term negative channel on the chart.  There has been ZERO value created by this mgmt. over these years.  Its been one disaster after another ......  This company was going to have to be all about Rexista (failure), Regabatin (well ?) and PODRAS (ah ..... hmmmmm) (you know I said the generics weren't worth didly).  THERE IS ZERO GOING FOR THIS COMPANY.

The more and more the stock falls, the more it would lead me to think the market knows the HAL study results are nothing new ..... hence the value to Rexista gets flushed as well.  So, Regabatin and PODRAS require MILLIONS AND MILLIONS more research to advance anywhere.  So what does IPCI have of value today ?  They have nothing other than to try to sell of their generics to someone else.  Regabatin and PODRAS would require more dilution and partner sharing ..... so the spiral continues.

Will the rabbit make an appearance ?  Who knows?  There is always room ..... but yeah ..... only thing I agree with Pharmer on is if there is good news and the stock spikes ..... you have to consider action .... depending on the news ......

Amigo Mike
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wimuskyfisherman

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Reply with quote  #8 
Amigo- You won't find me arguing about claims the company hasn't made any progress. They haven't. And Regabatin is a worthless NDA. Maybe a future ANDA... The funny thing is they now claim to have three new confidential NDAs... They can't even do anything with their NDAs that are public... So unless they developed these with a specific partner in mind- who will pay to get these approved... They are worthless as well. 

I really think they should of sold all the ANDAs off. That would at least have limited the dilution for a while. But obviously there is someone who wants to take those on the cheap.

My guess is at that at some point all this technology is transferred to Cerecor. I am now thinking this may be Boyd's intention. If this is done, it will not be a buyout, but a takeover that does not benefit shareholders one bit.

Someone will get the technology on the cheap. But who knows how much it is really worth. 

The one thing I want to make sure is that Smart Pharma does not get it under any circumstance. That would be what I expect from Odidi at this point . Pay for the ANDA approvals on IPCI shareholder's dime while driving company into the ground. And when you are supposed to be working on Rexista, you find a Chinese contract manufacturing company. You don't align this company with IPCI, but rather with a new company that you own along with some Nigerian buddies. Then when the time is right, buy the ANDAs on the cheap. Then commercialize them with the Chinese contract manufacturer and Smart Pharma. That is about what I expect from Odidiot at this point. But he will probably screw that up as well.
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #9 
Amigo, Its not a matter of staying away from these in the future.  Its a matter of I need to get the money now for my wife to be retired.  I am already on disability so my income will not go up.  I was trying to help supplement her retirement income.  so I wont be investing in something like this ever again.  this was my only last shot.

I guess then its just a matter of when I sell to preserve what little is left.  I absolutely do not not understand the valuation.  which is why I keep asking for help to understand it.  You pointed out yourself, if we have currently 8 million shares and the company just got the 11 million why are we not trading at least at the $1.35 as you pointed out?  to be near the current level of 50 cents, as you showed we should be at 24 million shares?   there has been no indication that anyone exercised those other warrants.

my concern is as you, pointed out , someone already knows what the studies reveal and if so does that mean we do not even see any type of pop from this level just to get back to the $1.35?   at this point, doubling my money from 50 cents to the dollar range makes a difference in my monthly income from $100 to $200 a month assuming I find around a 9 to 10% generator.   which they are out there.  

I never thought I would be in this shape.   I agree he has done nothing to promote the  pipeline. its been a year and here we are still waiting on HAP results.  my biggest fear is we get the hap results but then do not see any increase in price.   Hence why I keep saying, even with good news we do not see any price appreciation.  just this continued spiral.   we just got news of being back in compliance and instead of going up even a penny we went down.  Yes, I know if they stay down below the dollar for 30 days we get another letter but come on.  not even that news gives us a break.
I just do see why we are not at least around the $1.35 for having the cash on the books.   this is why I keep saying unfair valuation or manipulation.  I guess at this point I just have to wonder if the HAP study news will even keep us here or just continue the slide.  I really cant wait much longer.  the sad part is my shares except for a few are held in IRA's and I cant even take a loss. 

I am just sick.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #10 
Samsa,

I feel for ya .... I really do.  Sadly I don't see much in the way of recovery possibilities when it comes to holding onto IPCI.

Given the stage of your life that you have described over these years, you should not have had anything in IPCI you could not afford to lose (and certainly not buying more recently) .... and not to the point of banking on IPCI for retirement.  That leads me to think you didn't really know what you were buying into.

I have been evaluating microcaps, include baby bios like IPCI for more than 3 decades.  I used to publish write-ups on small unknown companies after considerable research.  That is where the tag "Amigo Mike" came from as I was one of the "3 Amigos".  You can still find thread from the old Silicon Investor from over a decade ago.  Anyway, I tried to give a balanced opinion on IPCI ..... just like the chart in an earlier post .... this stock has been decaying for YEARS and mgmt. has delivered virtually nothing during that time.   So why you'd continue to pour retirement money into it baffles me as there has been no indication of anything being done properly for years.  You can make the argument if Adcom had yielded a positive result ...... but we knew going into that IPCI wouldn't be able to continue forward even with a positive vote.  Stock would have spiked up a bit but ..... eventually resume falling after the initial euphoria.

As to your question on valuation .....
Ok .... say there is $11 million in the bank .... 8 million shares .... $1.375 per share cash.  Well the prefunded warrants invalidate the 8 million outstanding because the buyers of the prefunded warrants have basically already paid for new shares (it is MOST of the $11 million already in the bank) ...... that is where the 24 million share number comes in at .46.  This is the most accurate at this moment in time ..... so the stock is trading at roughly a nickel above cash.

Now the stock market almost always is looking ahead 6 to 12 months.  So you tell me:

What is IPCI going to do with the remaining $11 million that is going to GENERATE A RETURN ON INVESTMENT ? 

Or ......

Is the market anticipating the money in the bank is merely to cover operating expenses for the next year (to satisfy Nasdaq) and will be sufficiently burned with no ROI ???

If you take the view the money is just to keep the doors open and no revenue generating event occurs, then the money in the bank is already spent and the stock ..... well .... the stock is worthless outside of what it can generate from its already approved drugs either via revenue or outright sale.  Of course .... WHO ARE THEY GOING TO SELL THE EXISTING APPROVED ANDAs too ?  I know the sale of the approved drugs has been floated but a buyer would have to be willing to maintain the partnership or somehow get out of it.  So less value to buyer.  And sales are becoming a joke so .... even less value.

So what does IPCI really have of any value right now ?  Windows to capture market share on some other ANDAs have come and gone ...... so what's the answer on valuation ????  Isn't the market telling you what the answer is and been doing so for the last 5 years ?

Amigo Mike
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #11 
Amigo, I guess the issue with me was never fully providing for the fact that Odidi was either a scam artist or that incompetent.  That and yes, I still say the manipulation.  Lets face it, based on the operational update the company put out the beginning of the year, they were evaluating partner(s) for Regabatin.  even said they hoped to start trials by year end based on funds, which if they partnered it, funds would not have been a problem.    They were planning on Partnering Rexista, which if they had would come with upfront cash, even if it was a minimal 5 to 10 million.   So, knowing he was running out of cash. knowing he was narcissistic and wanted to keep his lifestyle going. who wouldn't think he wouldn't ink the deals?   So, with the share price the way it was, and my investments in an IRA and cant short, I had no choice but to try and cost avg. down.  

Then most recently, with trying to regain compliance.   After the RS and we sat at $2.50 to $3, it made perfect sense what Pharmer was saying to announce HAP results along with a partnership.  allow the price to pop to $10 to maybe $15 a share and THEN sell off 1 million shares and get that same 10 million in the bank with only a 5.3 million float.    It did make perfect sense. that compounded with now requesting a stay in the legal proceeding with purdue leaned toward they were intending to partner and the partner would need to that settled before inking any deal.

at which point getting just $10 a share would have at least got me back to $150,000 and I would only have lost the original money that I already did after Adcom.   When thinking about living on a fixed income, $150,000 generates 1250 a month!   that would have been a great help.  That is why I needed it so bad and it all made sense what Pharmer was saying! 

I agree that I am not in-tuned enough to tell if a short squeeze would have even popped us to that price but even if we only got to $7 or $8 it was better than $2.50.   my problem was as soon as they announced they wanted to sell shares now, The manipulation started and the price dragged down, which is why we saw what 9 different prospectuses come out?   I am sure wainwright was behind most of it.  As well as the people who bought up the offering.   And what could us little guys do?    Even as we sat at $1.50 I asked what to do and Pharmer was saying relax this is normal.    he was saying cover, which to me means buy your shares sold short, which should push the price up.  however we would see the price go up during the mornings, but then fall way down below the previous close.  To me I did not see how this was covering, unless they were immediately selling short again, which at that point he was then misleading because the end result was we would be headed down not higher.    So I tried to sit back and relax and now here we sit.  I am still waiting for his reply to see if I was lied too or if this is what he was intending and the rest hasn't happened yet.   I still do not know why someone would blatantly lie on a forum when someone is asking for help.  Its one thing not to have an answer and can not offer help, its another to outright give someone bad advice you know will hurt them. 

So the point is, I now sit here with only $15,000 to my name staring down at retirement for my wife in a year.  Every dollar still counts. which is why again, I ask, then what is the best out look here?   I agree to hold long term the stock will head lower as they spend down the funds they just got and do not bring in value.  However, we do know they should be releasing HAP studies when they refile.  its difficult to say if they are going to actually partner the damn thing this time.   So assuming they do release Hap results and refile then there should be some speculative value get built in.  I would think.  If you feel no it wont, then I probably just should sell now.  because at this point even 15k means $100 a month.  But do you think we have a chance for any speculative value to start getting built in once Hap studies are out and they refile?   This is where I have said all along that IPCI was not acting like a normal stock because no speculative value is being built in.
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #12 
Samsa,

If you continue to hang onto the "manipulation" theme .... then you really should not be investing in stocks.  I showed a 5 yr chart of constant decline.  IPCI has been manipulated all this time ?

Let me put it another way, in those 5 years, what has IPCI delivered or has advanced that would result in a positive valuation adjustment that wasn't already on the books at the beginning of those 5 years ??  Rexista is the only answer and up til know that is a brutal failure.  So right now today IPCI has created nothing positive towards company valuation but ..... the share count has gone from I think it was just around 20 million fully diluted shares 5yrs ago ..... to more than 450 million shares now (all pre split).  Even if you thought IPCI was worth $100 million 5 yrs ago ..... and there's been no addition since and let's just say you still think IPCI is worth $100 million today .....  5 yrs ago the valuation is $5 per fully diluted share, today the valuation is $0.22 ...... my point ..... NO MANIPULATION NEEDED.

As to the beginning of the year update, if it wasn't a "SHOW ME" stock by the start of 2018, I don't know what one is.  Nothing that comes from this company can be taken as reliable UNTIL IT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

You cannot rely on internet message board posts as I am sure you know.  A poster's credibility is easily determined by the history, yet still cannot be relied upon.  Myself included.  There are many good people on these forums ..... but there are also many predators.  Even a fair portion of those good people can be manipulated into unwittingly helping the predators.  I cannot tell you who to trust ..... I can only say you have to do the work to validate whatever you read.

Unfortunately, I can't tell you what to do with your current position beyond you need to stop looking backward as the damage is already done.  You must look forward and develop a plan based on what you know in order to navigate this issue and stick too it.  

The best outlook here is a question for mgmt.  Obviously any deals that may or may not have been presented to mgmt. haven't met with their satisfaction (if in fact there actually are/were any) or are still being negotiated/reviewed.  From my experience, some of these pharma deals can literally take a year or more between negotiating and lawyers.  So for all I know, the rabbit could jump out of the hat at any time on a deal that may have been agreed to months ago ...... but unless mgmt. acknowledges something, we can't expect anything.

The HAP studies are IPCI's next best chance at some positive news.  STOP TRYING TO DETERMINE VALUATION and SPECULATIVE VALUATION BECAUSE FEW KNOW HOW TO DO IT FOR A BIOTECH/PHARMA.  There is so much negative swirl around this company, you just can't judge it.  If they release the HAP studies and they are good, I'd expect a brief spike up in the stock (but remember on some of those positive announcements, the stock closed LOWER the same day) as traders will see the news and bid up the shares for a brief period (everyone already knows it ..... so sell the news).  If IPCI doesn't partner Rexista, how are they going to sell it ?  And who has the millions needed for marketing advertising and distribution ?

So that is why I tell you you need to think about what you want to do and have a plan.  If I were you I'd be looking for other companies to put my money in that are much more solid, better mgmt and hold more promise than IPCI so that I could move the money when the time comes.

I know that advice sucks too but ..... it is the best I can offer.  If I knew what was going to happen here I'd certainly be sipping Pina Coladas on my own private island somewhere.

Amigo Mike
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Samsa1

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Reply with quote  #13 

 Amigo,  I really do appreciate any advice at this point.  Like I said, with my health issues and now the current valuation, I know I will have a problem just paying for my drugs. That is why its a very big decision now to just determine if I sell now and get out or hope for a double in price as that means an extra 100 a month  and that will go a long way.  I never had intended to be invested in this, this long!  I kept hanging onto the false promises and never thinking he wouldn't partner a drug if he had offers, nor did I think the board would keep their heads buried in the sand and allow it. 

My problem however is trying to develop some exit strategy and yes, that is where the manipulation does still pay a factor.  Most stocks on good news at least see a pop even a slight one.  This stock doesn't act that way because of manipulation.  I recall when they announced the patent for Podras and we went down that day instead of seeing any appreciation.   conversely, We recently saw the price pop up to $4 from $2.50 for no reason at all.  Then it was forced back down to the $2.50 range , then the company announced they intended to do an offer.   The price was continually forced down and that is why we saw the company continually give updated prospectuses because of the lower price.    So was the price manipulated down just to force that higher dilution?   I think so.  which is why I was asking for help back when I did because it was not making sense to me. 

So that is why I say it is very difficult to try and make a determination, do I sell now so I can get that $100 a month in income or hope for a tiny spike in price which would make a huge difference for retirement income.  I can tell you now its not a matter of finding a another stock, I have to immediately invest into a dividend because I would not be able to trust any stock that I wouldn't lose more. 

I guess I am still hoping that Pharmer did not lie to me.   I still do not see any reason someone would want to lie on a forum.  I can see people giving their opinions as to what they think the company can or would do and be wrong.  But to outright lie and mislead someone who was asking for help, knowing that I needed to preserve capital, I do not see what the purpose would be?   Because the idea of forums is to help others out where or if you can and to pass on information if you can. Like I was able to pass on updates on the purdue ligation because I had access to them.   But when it came to things like these pre-funded warrants I never even heard of such a thing before, nor what the implication would be.  Or the same as when Pharmer was saying cover to his group and I was not understanding how covering brings the price back down?   So, I hope he can come back and give an explanation.

In the meantime, I guess I just need to figure out a price and sell and save what little I have left.  as of now I only have 15.k left and I can invest that at 9% and generate about $125 a month.  but it would be nice if I felt we could get to $1 but I do not think I afford to risk losing what I have left.  At which point it make its even more harsh if it turns out I was lied too because I could have sold at $1.50 and that would have at least generated $375 a month.   I know that may not seem like a lot to you but when you are looking at having over $10,000 a year iin medicine alone that wont be covered by insurance.  That makes a huge difference.   hence why the long sleepless nights as I cant afford to get this decision wrong 
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AmigoMike

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Reply with quote  #14 
That's where it is hard Samsa. Even if IPCI puts out some good news, it is a fools game trying to guess price appreciation.

When are the HAP results going to be provided to the markets ?

Amigo Mike
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